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Consensus Revenue Forecast Presented to Vermont State Emergency Board (Jan. 2016)

01.21.2016

On January 19, 2016, EPR President Jeff Carr presented the latest short-term economic and state revenue consensus forecast update to the Vermont Emergency Board in Montpelier, Vermont.  Click here to download a copy of the report.


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December Livingston Survey Results (Dec. 2015)

12.10.2015

The Livingston Survey which began in 1946 is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released results from the  December survey.  Bob Chase, senior economist at EPR has been a member of the Livingston Survey since the early 1990s.

Forecasters project that real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.1% for the second half of 2015 and 2.5% for the first half of 2016. They predict that unemployment will decline to 4.9% in December 2015 and 4.8% in June 2016, lower than previous estimates.

The full report is available below as a PDF:


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October VBR/EPR Survey Results Released (Oct. 2015)

10.28.2015

The VBR/EPR Business Conditions Survey for the third quarter of 2015/fourth quarter of 2015 has been released. For the sixth quarter in a row, CEOs attitudes about the state’s business climate outlook continue to deteriorate from mildly optimistic to neutral.  More than half of respondents (58 percent) continued to express negative outlooks with regard to the ease of hiring for available positions.  The Information sector expressed the most optimistic outlooks on the general business climate. Compared with their national counterparts, Vermont companies demonstrated similar caution with near-term prospects and plans for capital outlays. For this reporting period, the results show a continued decline in optimism from Q2 2015 to Q3 2015, indicating that Vermont CEOs are solidly neutral in their attitude about the general business climate for the coming three months.

The Business Conditions Survey is conducted in partnership between the Vermont Business Roundtable and Economic & Policy Resources.  The nine question survey of the 97 members of the Vermont Business Roundtable captures a glimpse of how Vermont business leaders see the state economy.  The survey asks business leaders how  their businesses have fared in the recent past and how they view the future.  Sentiments regarding the current and expected business climate and the expected impact on hiring and investing decisions are also surveyed.   Included in the standard survey is a question asking roundtable members for opinions on a current debate in public policy.   Along with providing a snapshot of the Vermont business climate, the survey allows Vermonters to see how these markers change over time.

Watch EPR's Amanda Wassel discuss the survey results on Channel 17: https://www.cctv.org/watch-tv/programs/vermont-business-roundtableepr-business-conditions-survey-3rd-quarter-results-2015


The Press Release is available as a PDF below.


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New England Economic Partnership's Annual Economic Outlook Conference (Oct. 2015)

10.15.2015

On October 15, 2015, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented the updated 2015-18 economic forecast for the State of Vermont at the Fall 2015 Outlook Conference of the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.  The report is attached below.


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July VBR/EPR Survey Results Released (July 2015)

07.29.2015

The VBR/EPR Business Conditions Survey for the second quarter of 2015/third quarter of 2015 has been released. For the fifth quarter in a row, most responses to the overall question about the state’s business climate outlook were neutral to mildly optimistic.  More than half of respondents (59 percent) shared negative outlooks specifically with ease of hiring for available positions. For the first time, both the accommodations/food services and construction sectors had the most optimistic outlooks on the general business climate (75 percent, respectively).  For this reporting period, the diffusion index shows a slight upturn in optimism from Q1 2015 to Q2 2015, indicating that Vermont CEOs continue to feel neutral to mildly optimistic about the business climate for the coming three months.

The Business Conditions Survey is conducted in partnership between the Vermont Business Roundtable and Economic & Policy Resources.  The nine question survey of the 97 members of the Vermont Business Roundtable captures a glimpse of how Vermont business leaders see the state economy.  The survey asks business leaders how  their businesses have fared in the recent past and how they view the future.  Sentiments regarding the current and expected business climate and the expected impact on hiring and investing decisions are also surveyed.   Included in the standard survey is a question asking roundtable members for opinions on a current debate in public policy.   Along with providing a snapshot of the Vermont business climate, the survey allows Vermonters to see how these markers change over time.

Watch EPR's Amanda Wassel discuss the survey results on Channel 17: https://www.cctv.org/watch-tv/programs/vermont-business-roundtableepr-business-conditions-survey-2nd-quarter-results-2015

Read more on Vermont Digger: http://vtdigger.org/2015/08/04/vermont-business-roundtable-and-economic-policy-resources-second-quarter-2015-business-conditions-survey-results-show-neutral-outlook/

The Press Release is available as a PDF below.


PDF

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