BEA Releases First Quarter Third Estimate GDP (June 2020)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on the First-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate BEA Technical Note:

The decline in first quarter GDP reflected the response to the spread of COVID-19 as governments issued ""stay-at-home"" orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations and consumers canceled restricted or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 according to the ""third"" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the ""second"" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate the decrease in real GDP was also 5.0 percent. With the third estimate an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports.

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from PCE private inventory investment exports and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from residential fixed investment federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP decreased.

The decrease in PCE reflected a decrease in services led by health care as well as food services and accommodations. The decrease in private inventory investment was mainly in manufacturing led by petroleum and coal products. The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in services led by travel. The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment led by transportation equipment.

The BEA release can be found at the pdf below.