01.01.2019
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Livingston Survey represents the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey—dating from 1946—is published twice a year (June and September) and summarizes forecasts of economists from industry banking government and academia. In December 2018 23 economists participated in the survey operated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [EPR’s senior economist Robert A. Chase is a participant.]
The December 2018 survey results include:
Forecasters predict slightly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and steady unemployment for 2019. Real GDP is slated to grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second half of 2018; with slowing growth of 2.4 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2019 and 2.3 percent in second half of 2019. The unemployment rate is pegged to be 3.7 percent in December 2018; and decline and remain steady at 3.5 percent through 2019.
Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index inflation projections are expected to hold steady in 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be 2.3 percent in 2019 and decrease slightly to 2.2 percent in 2020. PPI inflation is projected to be 2.5 percent in 2019 and fall further to 2.1 percent in 2020.
Forecasters predict a stronger outlook for short-term rates but weaker outlook for long-term rates. Three-month Treasury bills are expected to increase to 2.80 percent by June 2019 and 3.01 percent by the end of 2019. Ten-year Treasury bonds are predicted to be 3.42 percent by mid-year and increase to 3.51 percent by December 2019.
For the long-term horizon of 10 years forecasters predict that inflation (as measured by the CPI) will average 2.23 percent annually and annual average real GDP growth at 2.07 percent.
The next Livingston Survey—based on June 2019 responses—will be published by the Philadelphia Fed in late June/early July.
The full report can be reviewed at the link below.
