BEA Releases Initial Estimate of Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 GDP (Feb 2019)

Real gross domestic product(GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1) according to the "initial" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter real GDP increased 3.4 percent.  Due to the recent partial government shutdown this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th.  The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) nonresidential fixed investment exports private inventory investment and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and state and local government spending. Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP increased. 

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment PCE and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

2018 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.9 percent in 2018 (from the 2017 annual level to the 2018 annual level) compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2017 (table 1). The increase in real GDP in 2018 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE nonresidential fixed investment exports federal government spending private inventory investment and state and local government spending that were slightly offset by a small negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP increased.

The acceleration in real GDP from 2017 to 2018 primarily reflected accelerations in nonresidential fixed investment private inventory investment federal government spending exports and PCE and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in residential investment.

The BEA release can be viewed at the pdf below