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Vermont Consensus Forecast Update (January 2018)

01.18.2018

On January 18, 2018, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented the updated consensus revenue forecast for the State of Vermont before the Vermont Emergency Board.  Click below to download a copy of the Forecast Update Report.


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BLS Releases November 2017 Employment Situation

12.08.2017

Employers added 228,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Job gains occurred in professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care. The number of jobs in professional and business services increased by 46,000 over the month, while manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs and health care gained 30,000 jobs.

Job growth in October 2017 was revised to 244,000, down from the initially estimated 261,000.  Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 170,000 additions a month. 

Average hourly earnings rose by five cents to $26.55. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5 percent.  

The full BLS press release on the November 2017 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for December 2017 will be released on Friday, January 5, 2018. 


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BEA Releases Second Estimate of Third Quarter GDP and Preliminary Estimate of Corporate Profits

11.29.2017

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “second” estimate of third quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product.  The advance estimate is based on more complete source data than the advance estimate.

The second estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent during the third quarter of 2017.  In the second quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.1 percent (revised).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in residential fixed investment.  Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, decreased. 

Corporate profits from current production increased $91.6 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. 

The full BEA press release on the advance estimate of third quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:

The next release—for the third estimate of third quarter GDP 2017 and for the revised estimate of corporate profits will be released on December 21, 2017. 


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BLS Releases October 2017 Employment Situation (Nov. 2017)

11.03.2017

Employers added 261,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The unemployment rate moved down to 4.1 percent.

Job gains occurred in professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care, offsetting a sharp decrease in food services and drinking places employment due to the September hurricanes. The number of jobs in professional and business services increased by 50,000 over the month, while manufacturing gained 24,000 jobs and health care gained 22,000 jobs.

 Job growth in September 2017 was revised to 18,000, up from the initially estimated -33,000.  Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 162,000 additions a month. 

Average hourly earnings rose by five cents to $26.53. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.4 percent.  

The full BLS press release on the October 2017 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for November 2017 will be released on Friday, December 8, 2017. 


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BEA Releases Advance Estimate of Third Quarter GDP

10.27.2017

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “advance” estimate of third quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product.  The advance estimate is based on source data that is subject to further revision.

The advance estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent during the third quarter of 2017.  In the second quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.1 percent (revised).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in residential fixed investment and state and local government spending.  Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, decreased. 

The full BEA press release on the advance estimate of third quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:

The next release—for the second estimate of third quarter GDP 2017 and for the preliminary estimate of corporate profits will be released on November 29, 2017. 


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Vermont Consensus Forecast...

On January 18, 2018, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented the updated consensus revenue forecast for the State of Vermont before the Vermont Emergency Board.  Click below to download a copy of the Forecast Update Report....


Read More