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Vermont Consensus Forecast Update (January 2018)

01.18.2018

On January 18, 2018, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented the updated consensus revenue forecast for the State of Vermont before the Vermont Emergency Board.  Click below to download a copy of the Forecast Update Report.


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BLS Releases December 2017 Consumer Price Index (Jan. 2018)

01.18.2018

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December of 2017 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the index for shelter was the main contributors to the monthly increase, as the shelter index rose 0.4 percent.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.3 percent in December.  Many indexes increased in December including those for medical care, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and motor vehicle insurance.

The all items index has risen 2.1 percent over the last 12 months ending in December, a smaller rise than the 2.2 percent average rise for the 12 months ending in November. 

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Wednesday, February 14, 2018, for the January 2018 Consumer Price Index.


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BLS Releases December 2017 Employment Situation (Jan 2018)

01.05.2018

Employers added 148,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in December of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Job gains occurred in construction, manufacturing, and health care. The number of jobs in construction increased by 33,000 over the month, while manufacturing gained 25,000 jobs and health care gained 31,000 jobs.

Job growth in October 2017 was revised to 211,000, down from the initially estimated 244,000.  Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 204,000 additions a month. 

Average hourly earnings rose by nine cents to $26.63. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5 percent.  

The full BLS press release on the December 2017 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for January 2018 will be released on Friday, February 2, 2018. 


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BEA Releases Third Estimate of Third Quarter GDP and Revised Estimate of Third Quarter Corporate Profits (Dec. 2017)

12.21.2017

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “third” estimate of third quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product.  The third estimate is based on more complete data than the “second” estimate. The third estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent during the third quarter of 2017. 

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, decreased. 

Corporate profits from current production increased $90.2 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. 

The full BEA press release on the third estimate of third quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:

The next release—for the advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP 2017 will be released on January 26, 2018. 


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BLS Releases November 2017 Consumer Price Index (Dec. 2017)

12.13.2017

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in November of 2017 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the index for energy was the main contributor to the monthly increase, as the energy index rose 3.9 percent.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.1 percent in November.  Many indexes increased in November including those for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and motor vehicle insurance.

The all items index has risen 2.2 percent over the last 12 months ending in November, a larger rise than the 1.8 percent average rise for the 12 months ending in October. 

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Friday, January 12, 2018, for the December 2017 Consumer Price Index.


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Vermont Consensus Forecast...

On January 18, 2018, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented the updated consensus revenue forecast for the State of Vermont before the Vermont Emergency Board.  Click below to download a copy of the Forecast Update Report....


Read More