Keeping you in the loop.

Jeffrey B. Carr Conducted a Workshop At the NANBEN Conference in Dallas, TX (Sept. 2018)


On September 29, 2018, Jeffrey Carr conducted a workshop regarding the near-term U.S. economic outlook at the inaugural annual conference of the North American Nagarathar Business & Entrepreneurial Network (NANBEN) in Dallas, TX.   Click the .pdf below for a copy of the slides for his presentation entitled: “Understanding the Economic Outlook in an Increasingly Unpredictable World.”


BEA Releases Third Estimate of Second Quarter GDP (Sept. 2018)


The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third estimate of second quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product.  The third estimate of 4.2 percent annual growth is based on more complete source data than were available for the second estimate issued last month (August 2018), which also calculated a 4.2 percent annualized growth rate.  However, the latest estimate reflects a downward revision to private inventory investment which was offset by small upward revisions to most other GDP components.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down slightly.


Vermont Secretary of Administration Press Release (Sept. 2018)


Secretary of Administration Susanne Young announced official revenue collections result for August of Fiscal Year 2019.  All three major fund aggregates-the General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund-were above their monthly targests. 

Please review the pdf below for more information.


BLS Releases August 2018 Consumer Price Index (Sept 2018)


According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in August of 2018 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the index for shelter was the main contributor to the monthly increase. 

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices increased by 0.1 percent in August.  The indexes for used cars and trucks and airline fares increased in August while apparel, medical care, communication, and personal care all declined.

After a build-up in inflation through much of the year, consumer price pressures moderated in August; a positive sign for workers who have seen larger paychecks mostly eaten up by price increases. From a year earlier, prices rose 2.7 percent, a slowdown from the near 3 percent gain in the prior two months of June and July..  Core inflation rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier; also slightly slower than July’s annual gain. 

The full press release can be found via the pdf below.

Next release is Thursday, October 11, 2018, for the September 2018 Consumer Price Index.




BLS Releases August Employment Situation (Sept. 2018)


The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August.  Downward revisions of 50,000 to the prior two months’ data brought the three-month average gain to 185,000.  Job gains were concentrated in a small number of sectors: professional and business services, construction, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining.  After increasing for 12 consecutive months, manufacturing employment fell by 3,000 in August.  Weakness in manufacturing also shows up in the index of hours, which declined in August; as well as a weakening manufacturing diffusion index, which indicates the percent of employers intending to add workers. 


The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.2 million changed little.  Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (6.3 percent), Asians (3.0 percent) and Hispanics (4.7 percent) showed little or no change in August. 


Long-term unemployed—those jobless for 27 weeks or more—was little changed in August at 1.3 million and account for 21.5 percent of the unemployed.  Over the year, the long-term unemployed has declined by 403,000.  The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons—referred also as involuntary part-time workers—stands at 4.4 million; relatively unchanged over the month, but down by 830,000 over the year. 


Both labor force participation rate—at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population (EPOP) ratio—at 60.3 percent, declined by 0.2 percentage points in August.  The 0.2 percentage point drop in EPOP showed up also for prime-age workers (age 25 to 54).  For men, the year-over-year increase in EPOP is 1.1 percentage points, while for women it is 0.8 percent.  For both men and women, EPOPs remain below pre-recession peaks and well below the peaks reached in 2000. 


The most encouraging news in the report is evidence of a modest acceleration in wage growth.  The average hourly wage increased by 2.9 percent over the last year.  That compares to a 2.7 percent year-over-year rise in July.  Though too early to assume a clear trend, the average of the last three months compared with the prior three months is slightly more rapid at 3.1 percent.  Pay gains are not especially strong in areas where employers have been complaining of labor shortages.  The average hourly wage in construction was up 3.3 percent over the past year, but the gain was 3.5 percent back in September 2016.  Wages in manufacturing have risen by just 1.8 percent over the last year. 


The overall picture in the August jobs report is overwhelmingly positive.  The economy continues to generate jobs at a very healthy pace and there is some modest evidence that wage growth may be accelerating so that wages at least slightly outpace the rate of inflation. 

The full press release on the August 2018 employment situation can be accessed in the pdf. below.   


The next employment situation report for September 2018 is scheduled to be released on Friday, October 5, 2018. 


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