The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Livingston Survey represents the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey—dating from 1946—is published twice a year (June and September) and summarizes forecasts of economists from industry, banking, government and academia. In December 2018, 23 economists participated in the survey operated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [EPR’s senior economist Robert A. Chase is a participant.]
The December 2018 survey results include:
Forecasters predict slightly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and steady unemployment for 2019. Real GDP is slated to grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second half of 2018; with slowing growth of 2.4 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2019 and 2.3 percent in second half of 2019. The unemployment rate is pegged to be 3.7 percent in December 2018; and decline and remain steady at 3.5 percent through 2019.
Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index inflation projections are expected to hold steady in 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be 2.3 percent in 2019 and decrease slightly to 2.2 percent in 2020. PPI inflation is projected to be 2.5 percent in 2019 and fall further to 2.1 percent in 2020.
Forecasters predict a stronger outlook for short-term rates but weaker outlook for long-term rates. Three-month Treasury bills are expected to increase to 2.80 percent by June 2019 and 3.01 percent by the end of 2019. Ten-year Treasury bonds are predicted to be 3.42 percent by mid-year and increase to 3.51 percent by December 2019.
For the long-term horizon of 10 years, forecasters predict that inflation (as measured by the CPI) will average 2.23 percent annually and annual average real GDP growth at 2.07 percent.
The next Livingston Survey—based on June 2019 responses—will be published by the Philadelphia Fed in late June/early July.
The full report can be reviewed at the link below.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Econoimc Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports were revised down, and private inventory investment was revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction to the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter from the second primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and PCE. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.
On December 17, 2018, Administration Secretary Susanne Young released General Fund, Transportation Fund and Education Fund revenue results for the month of November and the first five months of the State’s 2019 fiscal year. Receipts activity across all three fund aggregates during the month of November were upbeat, with receipts in the General Fund and Transportation Fund tracking ahead of cumulative consensus expectations through November. Receipts in the Education Fund were also up versus expectations for the month of November, paced by an ahead of target monthly receipts performance in the Sales & Use Tax. November’s above-target level of receipts in the Sales & Use Tax was the first ahead of target monthly receipts performance of the 2019 fiscal year. Receipts overall in the Education Fund were down slightly for the fiscal year to-date, mostly due to the under-performance of the Sales & Use tax over the first four months of the 2019 fiscal year. Even so, revenues in the State’s Education Fund were only 1.0 percent below consensus expectations overall through November.
Click the pdf below to download Secretary Young’s most recent press release.
The Consumer Price Index report, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides the latest evidence that inflation is more or less in line with where the Federal Reserve Bank wants it to be. The Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in October.
The gasoline index declined 4.2 percent in November, offsetting increases in other indexes including shelter and used cars and trucks. Other major energy component indexes were mixed with the index for fuel oil falling but the indexes for electricity and natural gas rising. Food indexes—food at home and food away from home—increased in November.
Core inflation—all items minus food and energy—rose 0.2 percent in November following a 0.2 percent rise in October. Indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks and electricity, medical care, recreation, water and sewer, and trash collection increased in November; in contrast, communications, airline fares, and motor vehicle insurance declined during the month.
Core inflation increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months ending in October. The energy index increased 3.1 percent, while the food index increased more modestly, advancing 1.4 percent over the last 12 months. In particular, the energy index had the smallest 12-month increase in two and a half years.
The full press release can be found via the link below.
Next release is Friday, January 11, 2019, for the December 2018 Consumer Price Index.
Nonfarm employers added 155,000 jobs, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, and hourly wages posted continued growth in November. With a modest downward revision to the job growth reported for the prior two months, the three-month average was 170,000 jobs, a clear slowing from the 204,000 average monthly rate over the last year.
Job gains occurred across a select group of sectors in November including health care, manufacturing, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 32,000 jobs. Employment in manufacturing increased by 27,000, with durable goods dominating. Professional and business services continued its growth trend, adding 32,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing added 25,000 jobs in November. Professional and business services (adding 561,000 jobs over the last 12 months) and health care (328,000) continued to be the biggest drivers of job growth; with solid gains over the year coming from manufacturing (288,000) and transportation and warehousing (192,000).
While the unemployment rate was unchanged in November, the strong labor market is pulling more people into the labor market. The employment rate—or employment-to-population ratio (EPOP or the percentage of adults with jobs) remained unchanged in November at 60.6, a high for the recovery. The increased EPOP showed particular strength for prime-age workers (ages 25-54) with a gain of one full percentage point over a three-month average.
The tighter labor market is showing some dividends in wage growth. The average hourly wage is up 3.1 percent over the last year; over the last three months (September, October and November), the annualized rate was up 3.3 percent. With the core rate of inflation at 2.2 percent, increased hourly wages translate to modest real wage gains. .
In sum, this is mostly a positive jobs report. The pace of job growth that began seven years ago is continuing, with the economy adding 2.3 million jobs during the first 11 months of the year. This growth rate is pulling more workers into the labor market, which is now tight enough to produce wage gains. However, there is some evidence of weakness including a slight drop in hours worked and a low share of voluntary quits.
The full BLS press release on the November 2018 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:
The next employment situation report for December 2018 will be released on Friday, January 4, 2019.