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COVID-19 Impact on the Fourth-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate: The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot

be quantified in the GDP estimate for the fourth quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, PCE, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The increase in private inventory investment was led by retail and wholesale trade industries. Within retail, inventory investment by motor vehicle dealers was the leading contributor. The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. The increase in exports of goods was

widespread, and the leading contributors were consumer goods, foods, feeds, and beverages, as well as industrial supplies and materials. The increase in exports of services was led by travel. The increase in PCE primarily reflected an increase in services, led by health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in intellectual property products that was partly offset by a decrease in structures. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services. The decrease in state and local government spending reflected a decrease in gross investment (led by new educational structures). The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods). Real GDP accelerated in the fourth quarter, increasing 7.0 percent after increasing 2.3 percent in the third quarter. The acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected upturns in exports and residential investment, and accelerations in private inventory investment and consumer spending, that were partly offset by a downturn in state and local government spending. Imports accelerated.

 

Updates to GDP: The increase in fourth-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the “advance” estimate. The updated estimates reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.

 

COVID-19 Impact on the Fourth-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate: The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot

be quantified in the GDP estimate for the fourth quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.  

 

The increase in private inventory investment was led by retail and wholesale trade industries . Within retail, inventory investment by motor vehicle dealers was the leading contributor. The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. The increase in exports of goods was widespread, and the leading contributors were consumer goods, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages. The increase in exports of services was led by travel. The increase in PCE primarily reflected an increase in services, led by health care, recreation, and transportation. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in intellectual property products that was partly offset by a decrease in structures. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services. The decrease in state and local government spending reflected decreases in consumption expenditures (led by compensation of state and local government employees, notably education) and in gross investment (led by new educational structures). The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by non-food and non-automotive consumer goods, as well as capital goods). Real GDP accelerated in the fourth quarter, increasing 6.9 percent after increasing 2.3 percent in the third quarter. The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports, accelerations in private inventory investment and PCE, and smaller decreases in residential fixed investment and federal government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in state and local government spending. Imports accelerated.

 

GDP for 2021: Real GDP increased 5.7 percent in 2021 (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 3.4 percent in 2020. The increase in real GDP in 2021 reflected increases in all major subcomponents, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports increased. The increase in PCE reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were "other" nondurable goods (including games and toys as well as pharmaceuticals), clothing and footwear, and recreational goods and vehicles. Within services, the leading contributors were food services and accommodations as well as health care. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment (led by information processing equipment) and in intellectual property products (led by software as well as research and development) that were partly offset by a decrease in structures (widespread across most categories). The increase in exports reflected an increase in goods (mainly non-automotive capital goods) that was partly offset by a decrease in services (led by travel as well as royalties and license fees). The increase in residential fixed investment mainly reflected an increase in new single family construction. The increase in private inventory investment primarily reflected an increase in wholesale trade (mainly in durable goods industries).

COVID-19 Impact on the Third-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate:  The increase in third quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, PCE, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in exports, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending.

 

The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in wholesale trade (led by nondurable goods industries) and in retail trade (led by motor vehicles and parts dealers). The increase in PCE reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, increases

were widespread with the largest contributions coming from “other” services (mainly international travel) and transportation services. The decrease in goods primarily reflected a decrease in spending on motor vehicles and parts. The increase in state and local government spending was led by employee

compensation (notably, education). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected an increase in intellectual property products (led by software and research and development) that was partly offset by decreases in equipment and structures. The decrease in residential fixed investment primarily reflected decreases in improvements and in new single-family structures. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services after the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government ended in the second quarter. The decrease in exports reflected decreases in both goods and services. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in services (led by travel and transport).  The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter was more than accounted for by a slowdown in PCE. From the second quarter to the third quarter, spending for goods turned down (led by motor vehicles and parts) and services decelerated (led by food services and accommodations).

 

Updates to GDP:  In the third estimate of the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than in the second estimate. Upward revisions to PCE (specifically, an upward revision to services), private inventory investment (both farm and nonfarm), residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment were partly offset by downward revisions to exports and federal government spending. Imports were revised down. 

COVID-19 Impact on the Third-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate:  The increase in third quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19

pandemic. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, PCE, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports. Imports , which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. 

 

The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in wholesale trade (led by nondurable goods industries) and in retail trade (led by motor vehicles and parts dealers). The increase in PCE reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, increases were widespread with the largest contributions coming from “other” services (mainly international travel), transportation services, and health care. The decrease in goods primarily reflected a decrease in spending on motor vehicles and parts. The increase in state and local government spending was led by employee compensation (notably, education). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected an increase in intellectual property products (led by software and research and development) that was partly offset by decreases in structures and equipment. The decrease in residential fixed investment primarily reflected decreases in improvements and in new single-family structures. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services after the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government ended in the second quarter. The decrease in exports reflected a decrease in goods that was partly offset by an increase in services. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in services (led by travel and transport). The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter was more than accounted for by a slowdown in PCE. From the second quarter to the third quarter, spending for goods turned down (led by motor vehicles and parts) and services decelerated (led by food services and accommodations).

 

Updates to GDP:  In the second estimate for the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than in the advance estimate. Upward revisions to PCE, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending were partly offset by downward revisions to exports, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. 

COVID-19 Impact on the Third-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate: The increase in third quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19

pandemic. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and

social benefits to households all decreased. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the third quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

 

The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in wholesale trade (led by nondurable goods industries) and in retail trade (led by motor vehicles and parts dealers). The increase in PCE reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, increases

were widespread with the largest contributions coming from “other” services (mainly international travel), transportation services, and health care. The decrease in goods primarily reflected a decrease in spending on motor vehicles and parts. The increase in state and local government spending was led by

employee compensation (notably, education). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected an increase in intellectual property products (led by software) that was partly offset by decreases in structures and equipment.  The decrease in residential fixed investment primarily reflected decreases in improvements and in new single-family structures. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services after the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government ended in the second quarter. The decrease in exports reflected a decrease in goods that was partly offset by an

increase in services. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in services (led by travel and transport).  The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter was more than accounted for by a slowdown in PCE. From the second quarter to the third quarter, spending for goods turned down (led by motor vehicles and parts) and services decelerated (led by food services and accommodations).