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Vermont Consensus Forecast Update (January 2018)


On January 18, 2018, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented the updated consensus revenue forecast for the State of Vermont before the Vermont Emergency Board.  Click below to download a copy of the Forecast Update Report.


BLS Releases January 2018 Consumer Price Index (Jan. 2018)


According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December of 2017 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the index for shelter was the main contributors to the monthly increase, as the shelter index rose 0.4 percent.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.3 percent in December.  Many indexes increased in December including those for medical care, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and motor vehicle insurance.

The all items index has risen 2.1 percent over the last 12 months ending in December, a smaller rise than the 2.2 percent average rise for the 12 months ending in November. 

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Wednesday, February 14, 2018, for the January 2018 Consumer Price Index.


BLS Releases December 2017 Employment Situation (Jan 2018)


Employers added 148,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in December of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Job gains occurred in construction, manufacturing, and health care. The number of jobs in construction increased by 33,000 over the month, while manufacturing gained 25,000 jobs and health care gained 31,000 jobs.

Job growth in October 2017 was revised to 211,000, down from the initially estimated 244,000.  Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 204,000 additions a month. 

Average hourly earnings rose by nine cents to $26.63. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5 percent.  

The full BLS press release on the December 2017 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for January 2018 will be released on Friday, February 2, 2018. 


BEA Releases Third Estimate of Third Quarter GDP and Revised Estimate of Third Quarter Corporate Profits (Dec. 2017)


The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “third” estimate of third quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product.  The third estimate is based on more complete data than the “second” estimate. The third estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent during the third quarter of 2017. 

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, decreased. 

Corporate profits from current production increased $90.2 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. 

The full BEA press release on the third estimate of third quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:

The next release—for the advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP 2017 will be released on January 26, 2018. 


Philadelphia Fed Releases December 2017 Livingston Survey (December 2017)


Forecasters participating in the December 2017 Livingston Survey have predicted that GDP will rise at an annual rate of 2.9% in the second half of 2017 and 2.5% in the first half of 2018, an upward revision from what was previously predicted in the June Survey.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall, reaching 4.1% in December, 4.0% in June of 2018, and continuing the trend to 3.9% in December 2018.

CPI inflation is expected to be 2.1% in 2017, increasing to 2.2% in 2018.

The Livingston Survey, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations. EPR’s Bob Chase is a long-time participant.

The next Survey is scheduled to be released in June.

The full report is available at the link below:


Client Resources

EPR has complied a list of valuable resources that benefit our clients. Read through our whitepapers and published articles to learn more about how our services can be of help.

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BLS Releases March...

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the...

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