Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank releases June 2018 Livingston Survey (June 2018)
Forecasters participating in the June 2018 Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for 2018 than they did in the December 2017 survey. Forecasters project that real GDP will rise at an annual rate of 2.7% during the first half of 2018 and 3.1% in the second half of 2018, both upward revisions from what were previously predicted in the December Survey.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall in the second half of this year; 3.9% in June to 3.7% in December of 2018, and continuing to fall to 3.6% in June 2019.
CPI inflation is expected to be 2.6% in 2018, and moderating to 2.3% in 2019.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations—twice a year it summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking and academia. Senior economist Bob Chase of EPR is one of the 24 forecasters on the survey’s panel.
The next Survey is scheduled to be released in December 2018.
The full report is available at the pdf below.