News

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank releases June 2018 Livingston Survey (June 2018)

06.15.2018

Forecasters participating in the June 2018 Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for 2018 than they did in the December 2017 survey.  Forecasters project that real GDP will rise at an annual rate of 2.7% during the first half of 2018 and 3.1% in the second half of 2018, both upward revisions from what were previously predicted in the December Survey.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall in the second half of this year; 3.9% in June to 3.7% in December of 2018, and continuing to fall to 3.6% in June 2019.

CPI inflation is expected to be 2.6% in 2018, and moderating to 2.3% in 2019.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations—twice a year it summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking and academia.  Senior economist Bob Chase of EPR is one of the 24 forecasters on the survey’s panel. 

The next Survey is scheduled to be released in December 2018.

The full report is available at the pdf below.

BLS Releases May 2018 Consumer Price Index (June 2018)

06.12.2018

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May of 2018 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the indexes for gasoline and shelter were the main contributor to the monthly increase, as they were in April.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.2 percent in May.  The indexes for new vehicles, education and communication, and tobacco all increased in May.

The all items index has risen 2.8 percent over the last 12 months ending in May, a figure which has been trending upward since the beginning of the year.  

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Thursday, July 12, 2018, for the June 2018 Consumer Price Index.

BLS Releases May 2018 Employment Situation (June 2018)

06.01.2018

Employers added 223,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May of 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The unemployment rate edge down at 3.8 percent.

Job gains occurred in retail, health care, and construction. The number of jobs in retail increased by 31,000, health care jobs increased by 29,000 over the month, while construction gained 25,000 jobs. 

Job growth in April2018 was revised to 159,000, down from the initially estimated 164,000.  Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 179,000 additions a month. 

Average hourly earnings rose by eight cents to $26.92. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.7 percent.  

The full BLS press release on the May 2018 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for June 2018 will be released on Friday, July 6, 2018. 

BEA Releases Second Estimate of First Quarter GDP (May 2018)

05.30.2018

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “second” estimate of first quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product.  The second estimate is based on data that is more complete compared to the “advance” estimate. The second estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent during the first quarter of 2018. 

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending.  The increase was partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment. Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, increased. 

The full BEA press release on the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:

The next release—for the third estimate of first quarter GDP 2018 will be released on June 28, 2018. 

BLS Releases April 2018 Consumer Price Index (May 2018)

05.10.2018

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April of 2018 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the indexes for gasoline and shelter were the main contributor to the monthly increase.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.1 percent in April.  The indexes for household furnishings and operations, personal care, tobacco, medical care, and apparel all increased in April.

The all items index has risen 2.5 percent over the last 12 months ending in April, a figure which has been trending upward since June 2017.  

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Thursday, June 12, 2018, for the May 2018 Consumer Price Index.