News

Philadelphia Fed Releases December 2017 Livingston Survey (December 2017)

12.18.2017

Forecasters participating in the December 2017 Livingston Survey have predicted that GDP will rise at an annual rate of 2.9% in the second half of 2017 and 2.5% in the first half of 2018, an upward revision from what was previously predicted in the June Survey.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall, reaching 4.1% in December, 4.0% in June of 2018, and continuing the trend to 3.9% in December 2018.

CPI inflation is expected to be 2.1% in 2017, increasing to 2.2% in 2018.

The Livingston Survey, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations. EPR’s Bob Chase is a long-time participant.

The next Survey is scheduled to be released in June.

The full report is available at the link below:

BLS Releases November 2017 Consumer Price Index (Dec. 2017)

12.13.2017

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in November of 2017 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the index for energy was the main contributor to the monthly increase, as the energy index rose 3.9 percent.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.1 percent in November.  Many indexes increased in November including those for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and motor vehicle insurance.

The all items index has risen 2.2 percent over the last 12 months ending in November, a larger rise than the 1.8 percent average rise for the 12 months ending in October. 

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Friday, January 12, 2018, for the December 2017 Consumer Price Index.

BLS Releases November 2017 Employment Situation (Dec. 2017)

12.08.2017

Employers added 228,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Job gains occurred in professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care. The number of jobs in professional and business services increased by 46,000 over the month, while manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs and health care gained 30,000 jobs.

Job growth in October 2017 was revised to 244,000, down from the initially estimated 261,000.  Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 170,000 additions a month. 

Average hourly earnings rose by five cents to $26.55. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.5 percent.  

The full BLS press release on the November 2017 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for December 2017 will be released on Friday, January 5, 2018. 

BEA Releases Second Estimate of Third Quarter GDP and Preliminary Estimate of Corporate Profits (Nov. 2017)

11.29.2017

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “second” estimate of third quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product.  The advance estimate is based on more complete source data than the advance estimate.

The second estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent during the third quarter of 2017.  In the second quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.1 percent (revised).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports. These increases were partly offset by a decrease in residential fixed investment.  Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, decreased. 

Corporate profits from current production increased $91.6 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. 

The full BEA press release on the advance estimate of third quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:

The next release—for the third estimate of third quarter GDP 2017 and for the revised estimate of corporate profits will be released on December 21, 2017. 

BLS Releases October 2017 Consumer Price Index (Nov. 2017)

11.15.2017

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in October of 2017 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  An increase in the index for shelter was the main contributor to the monthly increase, as the shelter index rose 0.3 percent.

Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.2 percent in October.  Many indexes increased in October including those for medical care, used cars and trucks, tobacco, education, personal care, and motor vehicle insurance.

The all items index has risen 2.0 percent over the last 12 months ending in October, a smaller rise than the 2.2 percent average rise for the 12 months ending in September. 

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Wednesday, December 13, 2017, for the November 2017 Consumer Price Index.