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June 2016 Livingston Survey Results (June 2016)


The Livingston Survey which began in 1946 is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released results from the  December survey.  Bob Chase, senior economist at EPR has been a member of the Livingston Survey since the early 1990s.

Forecasters project that real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.4% during the first half of 2016, lower than previously estimated. They expect growth to rise to 2.4% during the second half of the year, which is more in line with projections in the December 2015 survey. Unemployment is expected to be 4.9% this month and 4.7% in December. Long term, forecasters see the real GDP growth rate at 2.2% and the CPI growth rate at 2.25%.

The full report is available below as a PDF:


BLS Releases May 2016 Employment Situation (June 2016)


The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released employment data for May. Unemployment decreased by 0.3% to 4.7%. Nonfarm payroll employment saw a slight increase of 38,000.

A strike caused increased unemployment in the information sector. Mining also saw a loss of jobs. The health care sector, on the other hand, saw an increase in employment.

The full report is available as a PDF below:


BEA Releases Second Estimate of Q1 GDP with Preliminary Corporate Profit Estimate (May 2016)


The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its second estimate of first quarter 2016 GDP along with its preliminary estimate of first quarter corporate profits.

This second estimate, based on more complete data, shows GDP increasing at an annual rate of 0.8% during the first quarter, up from the advance estimate of 0.5% yet still a deceleration from the fourth quarter of 2015, which saw GDP increasing at an annual rate of 1.4%. The second estimate has a smaller decrease in private inventory investment than the advance estimate, contributing to the larger growth rate.

The preliminary corporate profit estimate for the first quarter shows an increase of $6.5 billion, which contrasts greatly with the $159.6 billion decrease seen in the fourth quarter of 2015.

The full report is available via the link below:


BEA Releases Advance Estimate of 2016 Q1 GDP (April 2016)


The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its advance estimate of first quarter 2016 Gross Domestic Product. The advance estimate is based on data that may be incomplete or subject to revision. The second estimate, released in May, will be based on more complete data.

The advance estimate shows GDP increasing at an annual rate of 0.5% during the first quarter of 2016. This is a deceleration from the fourth quarter of 2015, which saw GDP increasing at a rate of 1.4%.

This deceleration reflects a decrease in nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and net exports (due to an increase in imports) and was offset by an increase in state and local government spending and residential fixed investment.

The full report is available via the link below:


April VBR/EPR Survey Results Released (April 2016)


The VBR/EPR Business Conditions Survey for the first quarter of 2016/second quarter of 2016 has been released.  Most responses to the question about the state’s overall business climate outlook were neutral (51%).  The remaining responses were split between optimistic (28%) and pessimistic (20%).  More than 60 percent of respondents (62%) shared negative outlooks specifically with ease of hiring for available positions.  The education sector had the most optimistic outlook on the general business climate, while the health care sector had the least optimistic outlook.  For this reporting period, the diffusion index shows a decline in optimism from Q1 2016 to Q2 2016, indicating that Vermont CEOs continue to feel neutral to mildly pessimistic about the business climate for the coming three months.

The Business Conditions Survey is conducted in partnership between the Vermont Business Roundtable and Economic & Policy Resources.  The nine question survey of the 97 members of the Vermont Business Roundtable captures a glimpse of how Vermont business leaders see the state economy.  The survey asks business leaders how  their businesses have fared in the recent past and how they view the future.  Sentiments regarding the current and expected business climate and the expected impact on hiring and investing decisions are also surveyed.   Included in the standard survey is a question asking roundtable members for opinions on a current debate in public policy.   Along with providing a snapshot of the Vermont business climate, the survey allows Vermonters to see how these markers change over time.

Read more on Vermont Digger:

The press release is available as a PDF below.


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