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Vermont State Emergency Board Meeting: January 2017 Revenue Forecast Update (Jan.2017)

01.05.2017

 

Scott Administration Economist and EPR President and Senior Economist Jeff Carr, along with Legislative Economist Tom Kavet, will present the semi-annual Vermont Macroeconomic and Tax Revenue Forecast to the Vermont Emergency Board on January 19th at 10:00 AM.  The Vermont Emergency Board is comprised of Governor Phil Scott and so-called “money committee chairs” of the Vermont House and Vermont Senate.  The Vermont Emergency Board is charged with adopting a revenue forecast to help guide budget-appropriations deliberations during the 2017 legislative session.   

 


Livingston Survey—December 2016 Release (Dec. 2016)

12.15.2016

Forecasters participating in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Livingston Survey predict improved output growth over the second half of 2016 as well as an uptick in growth into 2017.  Forecasters project that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow to an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the second half of 2016 and growth of 2.2 percent in the first half of 2017 and 2.4 percent in the second half of 2017.  Inflation—as indicated by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index)--are expected to rise from 1.3 percent and -1.0 percent in 2016 to 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2017 respectively.  Other economic indicators included in the survey are nominal GDP, nonresidential fixed investment, corporate profits after taxes, industrial production, housing starts, auto sales, average weekly earnings, prime interest rate, 3-month Treasury Bill, and S&P 500 stock price.  The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations and is published twice a year in June and December.  Bob Chase, senior economist at EPR is a long-standing participant in the Survey.

For further information on the Survey, follow the link below. 


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2016 Annual Vermont Tax Seminar (Dec. 2016)

12.14.2016

On December 8, 2016, Jeffrey Carr of EPR presented "Comments on the 2017 Economic Outlook" at the 2016 Annual Vermont Tax Seminar at the Double Tree Conference Center in Burlington, Vermont.

A copy of his presentation is below.


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Consumer Confidence in the U.S. Surges in November 2016 (Dec. 2016)

12.02.2016

After a moderate decline in October, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® shot up in November 2016, from 100.8 to 107.1 (1985=100).  The current level of 107.1 brings the index back to pre-recession levels and is at its highest level since July 2007.  Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, reported that:  “A more favorable assessment of current conditions coupled with a more optimistic short-term outlook helped boost confidence. And while the majority of consumers were surveyed before the presidential election, it appears from the small sample of post-election responses that consumers’ optimism was not impacted by the outcome. With the holiday season upon us, a more confident consumer should be welcome news for retailers.”  For the full statement, click the link below.


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BLS Releases November 2016 Employment Situation (Dec. 2016)

12.02.2016

The U.S. economy continued to create jobs at a steady pace in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Employers added 178,000 jobs in November.  Job growth in October was revised to 142,000, down from initially estimated 161,000.  Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month. 

 

Average hourly earnings for all employees declined by 3 cents to $25.89, following an 11-cent increase in October.  Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent. 

 

The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November; its lowest rate in nine years.  The unemployment rate reflects mixed underlying trends; more people are finding jobs, but over 400,000 dropped out of the labor force, reflecting an aging workforce and discouraged workers.  The labor-force participation rate—those with jobs or actively seeking work, edged down to 62.7 percent in November from 62.8 percent in the prior month and continues to hover near a four-decade low. 

 

The full BLS press release on November 2016 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

 

 

The next employment situation report for December 2016 will be released on Friday, January 6, 2017. 


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BLS Releases May...

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  A decrease in the energy index was the main contributor...


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