The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advanced estimate of Second Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), showing an annualized growth rate of 4.1% during the April 2018 through June 2018 time period. The release also revised First Quarter 2018 GDP upwards from the previous estimate of 2.0%, to 2.2% annualized growth during the January 2018 through March 2018 period.
GDP growth during the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The full BEA press release on the advanced estimate of Second Quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:
The next release - for the second estimate of Second Quarter GDP 2018 – will be published on August 29, 2018.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June of 2018 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. An increase in the indexes for gasoline, food, and shelter were the main contributor to the monthly increase.
Excluding the volatile costs of food and energy, the index for all items less food and energy rose by 0.1 percent in June. The indexes for medical care, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and recreation all increased in June.
The all items index has risen 2.9 percent over the last 12 months ending in June, the largest 12-month increase since February of 2012.
The full press release can be found via the link below.
Next release is Friday, August 10, 2018, for the July 2018 Consumer Price Index.
Employers added 213,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June of 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail lost jobs. The number of jobs in professional and business services increased by 50,000, manufacturing jobs increased by 36,000 over the month, while health care gained 25,000 jobs. Retail lost 22,000 jobs.
Job growth in May 2018 was revised to 244,000, up from the initially estimated 223,000. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 211,000 additions a month.
Average hourly earnings rose by five cents to $26.98. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.7 percent.
The full BLS press release on the June 2018 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:
The next employment situation report for July 2018 will be released on Friday, August 3, 2018.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “third” estimate of first quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product. The third estimate is based on data that is more complete compared to the “advance” and “second” estimates. The third estimate shows that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent during the first quarter of 2018.
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. The increase was partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which is subtracted in the GDP calculation, increased.
Corporate profits increased $7.0 billion in the first quarter, compared to a decrease of $14.6 billion in the fourth quarter.
The full BEA press release on the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP can be accessed in the link below:
The next release—for the advance estimate of second quarter GDP 2018 will be released on July 27, 2018.
Forecasters participating in the June 2018 Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for 2018 than they did in the December 2017 survey. Forecasters project that real GDP will rise at an annual rate of 2.7% during the first half of 2018 and 3.1% in the second half of 2018, both upward revisions from what were previously predicted in the December Survey.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall in the second half of this year; 3.9% in June to 3.7% in December of 2018, and continuing to fall to 3.6% in June 2019.
CPI inflation is expected to be 2.6% in 2018, and moderating to 2.3% in 2019.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations—twice a year it summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking and academia. Senior economist Bob Chase of EPR is one of the 24 forecasters on the survey’s panel.
The next Survey is scheduled to be released in December 2018.
The full report is available at the pdf below.