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Macroeconomics

 

BLS Releases August 2019 Consumer Price Index (Sept. 2019)

09.12.2019

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were the major factors in the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase, outweighing a decline in the energy index. The energy index fell 1.9 percent in August as the gasoline index declined 3.5 percent. The food index was unchanged for the third month in a row.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, the same increase as in June and July. Along with the indexes for medical care and shelter, the indexes for recreation, used cars and trucks, and airline fares were among the indexes that increased in August. The indexes for new vehicles and household furnishings and operations declined over the month.

The all items index increased 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending August; the 12-month increase has remained in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent since the period ending December 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since July 2018. The food index rose 1.7 percent over the last year while the energy index declined 4.4 percent.

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Thursday, October 10, 2019, for the September 2019 Consumer Price Index.


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BLS Releases August 2019 Employment Situation (Sept. 2019)

09.06.2019

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in federal government rose, largely reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in health care and financial activities, while mining lost jobs.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 15,000 from +193,000 to +178,000, and the change for July was revised down by 5,000 from +164,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 20,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 156,000 per month over the last 3 months.

In August, employment in federal government increased by 28,000. The gain was mostly due to the

hiring of 25,000 temporary workers to prepare for the 2020 Census. Health care added 24,000 jobs over the month and 392,000 over the past 12 months. In August, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+12,000) and in hospitals (+9,000). In August, financial activities employment rose by 15,000, with nearly half of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+7,000). Financial activities has added 111,000 jobs over the year. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in August (+37,000). Within the industry, employment increased by 10,000 both in computer systems design and related services andin management of companies and enterprises. Monthly job gains in professional and business services have averaged 34,000 thus far in 2019, below the average monthly gain of 47,000 in 2018. Social assistance employment continued on an upward trend in August (+13,000). Within the industry, individual and family services added 17,000 jobs. Social assistance has added 100,000 jobs in the last 6 months. Mining employment declined by 6,000 in August, with nearly all of the loss in support activities for mining (-5,000). Retail trade employment changed little in August (-11,000). General merchandise stores lost 15,000 jobs over the month and 80,000 jobs over the year. Building material and garden supply stores added 9,000 jobs over the month. Employment showed little change over the month in construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality. Job growth in these industries has moderated thus far in 2019 compared with 2018.

 In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to

$28.11, following 9-cent gains in both June and July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents to $23.59.

The full BLS press release on the August 2019 employment situation can be accessed in the link below:

The next employment situation report for September 2019 is scheduled to be released on Friday, October 4, 2019. 

 


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Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Second Estimate) Aug. 2019

08.29.2019

Real gross domestic product(GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.  In the previous “advance estimate,” the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local government spending, exports, private inventory investment, and residential investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were unrevised.

The increase in real GDPin the second quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased.  The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.


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BLS Releases July 2019 Consumer Price Index (Aug 2019)

08.13.2019

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the indexes for gasoline and shelter were the major factors in the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The energy index rose in July as the gasoline and electricity indexes increased, though the natural gas index declined. The index for food was unchanged for the second month in a row, as a decline in the food at home index was offset by an increase in the food away from home index.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 in July, the same increase as in June. The July rise was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for shelter, medical care, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, apparel, and personal care all contributing to the increase. The index for new vehicles was one of the few to decline in July.

The all items index increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending July, a larger increase than the 1.6-percent rise for the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the last 12 months, slightly more than the 2.1-percent increase for the period ending June. The food index rose 1.8 percent over the last year while the energy index declined 2.0 percent.

The full press release can be found via the link below.

Next release is Thursday, September 12, 2019, for the August 2019 Consumer Price Index.


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BLS Releases July 2019 Employment Situation (Aug. 2019)

08.02.2019

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 41,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged +140,000 per month over the last 3 months.

Professional and technical services added 31,000 jobs in July, bringing the 12-month job gain to 300,000. In July, employment increased by 11,000 in computer systems design and related services; this industry accounted for about one-third of employment growth in professional and technical services both over the month and over the year. Employment in health care rose by 30,000 over the month, reflecting a gain in ambulatory health care services (+29,000). Health care employment has increased by 405,000 over the year, with ambulatory health care services accounting for about two-thirds of the gain. Social assistance added 20,000 jobs in July. Employment in this industry has increased by 143,000 over the year.  In July, financial activities employment rose by 18,000, with most of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000). Mining employment declined by 5,000 in July, after showing little net change in recent months. Manufacturing employment changed little in July (+16,000) and thus far in 2019. Job gains in the industry had averaged 22,000 per month in 2018. Employment in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.98, following an 8-cent gain in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 4 cents to $23.46.

The full BLS press release on the July 2019 employment situation can be accessed in the link below.

The next employment situation report for August 2019 is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 6, 2019. 

 


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